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Wednesday, December 19, 2007

HOT STOCK : AUROBINDO PHARMA

One of the largest API manufacturers in Asia, Aurobindo Pharma has commercialised over hundred APIs. Aurobindo's products are spread over six major areas encompassing Antibiotics, Anti-Retro Virals, CVS, CNS, Gastroenterologicals, and Anti-Allergics.

Aurobindo’s R & D strengths lie in developing intellectual property in non-infringing processes and resolving complex chemistry challenges. In the process, Aurobindo develops new drug delivery systems, dosage formulations and applies new technology for better processes.

This is an A group stock trading at a PE of only 10 at current market price. The price is near year's low and technically looks as bottoming out. The stock is also in FNO and can see some action in the near future. Being an A lister in the Pharma industry, this stock deserves a PE rating of 15-20 and thus, a price target of 780 to 1040 in the medium to long term.

Cheers!

55 comments:

deepil2003 said...

hi navin
i purchased small quantity of aurbpharma @533rs lets hope best
cheers
regards
deepil2003

sudiprc said...

Thnx again for a valued suggestion. Could you post any view upon 'GVfilms Ltd'? Is it good or just rumour!

vijay said...

navin,

could you share your opinion on this

BHAGYANAGAR INDIA LIMITED at 55/- Target 95/- 155/-
one of the boarder has recomended this. more info

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/messageboardblog/16/04/message_thread/2008130/2457852#m2457852

Thanks
Vijay

vijay said...

Navin, some info from money control message board. current price is 19 is it worth investing?

Jasch Jasch Industries

Market Price : 14.35
Target : 550
Jasch : company annual sales at42 crores,with bottom line of 1.71crores,with an EPS of 1.7 ,Market cap stood at 15 crores .
Do you find anystock in current market leing at a PE of less than 10,
sales/market cap =3.
Moreover comapny oflate diversify into realestate businees with Mittal associates,which will reap profit from coming quarter.
Comapny land value + korean plant cost estimated to be more than 600 crores.
So by simple calculation : 600 /1.1 - 550 Rs target price by june,2008. Comapany will be coming for a right issue very soon in next fiscal,so promoters & operators will ramp up the stock as well.

Superstar said...

Hi Vijay,

Regarding your copy paste of message on Jasch. Firstly, the market price is 19.60 not 14.35. Secondly, following is the copy paste of a response to the message you have posted :

"Can you provide some more background on how Jasch is worth 600 crores?
their total assets as on 31-mar-07 are 34 crores and net block is 16 crores.

Regds
Sundar"

All sorts of rumors and price targets are now being floated in the market for even small unknown stocks. While I am not commenting on this stock in particular, I would advice you and everyone else to stay very cautious in the market now.

Cheers!

paddy said...

Hi Superstar.,
Sorry to use this forum to ask about other stocks. I hold 2000 shares of Tata investment corporation picked up at various stages from Rs.390 to Rs.580. There was a Tata offer of buy back at 600/share. Despite the buy back announcement the stock went upto 700. suddenly it crashed to 630 yesterday. I am in a dileman now. can I exit and use that money for Aurobindo Pharma or South Asian petrochem (I like this most out of your recommendations). Everybody told me that the Tata inv. corporation is like Gold and I can hand over to my children. My faith is a little shaken. I solicit your advice please.

sharefree said...

Hi Superstar,
This is my first visit to your blog and obviously first comment too !!!
Let me give my feedback, I am thorougly impressed by your analysis and out look. I fully agree with you that Aurobindo Pharma is a great pick at this price. These are the price points be it 520 OR 490s, its time to accumulate such stock.

Keep up your work, needless to say that your blog would be my daily must watch sites for updates.

Thanks a ton.

Srini847 said...

Hi Superstar,

I am srini from Bangalore, new to investing. i would like to know about IFCI, i have 50 (@84). Let me know if l can keep it or sell it off.

pls reply me

Superstar said...

Hi Srini,
What happened with IFCI is unfortunate. The stock had run up from 10 to 120 in the last eight months or so on the news of the stake sale. And yesterday the news came that the sale was off. The fundamental worth of the share is approx. Rs.65. The stock is likely to be in the range between 65 to 85 for now.

Srini847 said...

Thanks a lot for ur reply superstar.

Its really great to get reply from u. Would u mind to suggest me few reco's from ur side for short term.I am looking for small cap scripts, dont know if l am right or wrong.

Pls suggest me.

-Srini.

SHIVAKUMAR said...

good to hear & watch such useful blogs. keep posting more & more investing information

SHIVAKUMAR said...

its nice to see such useful blogs.
superstar keep it up & try more to make every indian wealthy

Superstar said...

Hi Paddy,

No doubt Tata Investment is a good stock posting good earnings. But chartically it looks like it made a top in the short run around 704 levels. There is little to choose between Tata Investment and Aurobindo besides the fact that Tata investment is now correcting and the correction in Aurobindo seems to be getting over. While in the long run, it is difficult to choose between the two, in the very short term, I feel Aurobindo might perform better.

Cheers!

real value said...

Dear Superstar
If u could enlighten about Assam Co.Ltd.regarding fundamental and targets, shall be highly appreciated.Thnk u

ketansolid said...

Dear Superstar

Hi. Aurobindo seems to have slowed down on the bourses. What is the long term target??

I must say I am thoroughly impressed by your stock picking.

Cheers!

Ketan Shah

ketan@vsnl.com

nitin said...

Hi Super star.

I bought 2500 share of unichem at 218. Now it is at 209. Do you thing I should invest more in every dip. what should be stop loss.

nitin said...

Hi Super star.

I bought 2500 share of unichem at 218. Now it is at 209. Do you thing I should invest more in every dip. what should be stop loss.

Superstar said...

Hi Nitin,

Unichem Labs had jumped to 237 levels immediately after my buy call at approx. 190 levels. It is a fundamentally very sound stock which can be held for long term investment with targets of over 300and possibly over 400. I would be a buyer at every dip in this stock. I don't think a stop loss is required in this stock unless something very drastic or unprecedented happens in the overall market scenario. For your information, it has been reported that Reliance Capital has also bought 5.5 lakhs shares of Unichem Labs only a few days back. I am very bullish on this stock.

Cheers!

Superstar said...

Hi Realvalue and Sudiprc,

About your queries on Assam co. and GV films......I don't actively track either of them. But there has been some buzz about Assam Co. which is essentially a tea plantation company as FIIs have increased their stake in that company this year. GV Films is an outright penny stock.

It has been noticed that a lot of penny stocks which can be put in the category of cats and dogs have also started moving in the current rally in mid and small caps. I would advise extreme caution in dealing in such penny stocks and would caution investors against falling prey to all sort of operator driven rumours. Such stocks can fall faster than the speed with which they go up.

Cheers!

sharefree said...

Hi,
Would appreciate your views on NATCO Pharma and GTL Infra.

Awaiting your vaulable inputs.

Thanks

VAP75 said...

Dear Navin,
You are a real super star. I have recoverred my almost all lost amount in IT stocks, thanks to your advise.
Can you please advise on Infosys from a 6 months point of view? I have 100 at average price of 1910.
Thanks,
Vikram

Superstar said...

Hi Sharefree,

Natco Pharma is a decent stock in the Pharma sector trading at a PE of around 13 approx. I would say that it would perform in line with the Pharma sector and would probably not outperform it. I am not too fond of GTL Infra as the fundamentals don't look attractive to me at this stage.

Hi Vap75,

Thanks for appreciating. I think Infosys can easily go back to your avg cost price within the next six months and may even give you a small profit. But it may not give you too much in terms of profit. The wise thing to do would be to wait till its quarterly results are out in January, 2008 and then decide on the future course of action.

Cheers!

VAP75 said...

Thanks Navin for your view on Infosys.

mahesh said...

Dear Sir,

I am mahesh and it's my first visist to your blogsite. I have been a constant tracker of your picks on moneycontrol. Sir i have been truly impressed with your low priced but high valuation picks. Sir my email id is
mahesh2trade@gmail.com Sir i would be really thankful to your if you include me in your mailing list sir.

Hoping for a positive response soon

Mahesh

mahesh said...

Dear Sir,

I am mahesh and it's my first visit to your blogsite. I am a constant tracker of your value picks on moneycontrol.com. I am really impressed with your low priced high valuation picks. Sir my email id is
mahesh2trade@gmail.com. Sir i would be truy grateful to you if you include me in your mailing list.

With regards

Mahesh

GA said...

Dear Superstar,
The name really suits you well.
Keep it up.
Can you throw some light on MIRC ELECTRONICS?
Thanks in advance.
Regards.
GA.

Superstar said...

Hi GA,

Thanks for the compliments. I had recommended Mirc Electronics around 18 rupees some months back. It is now trading at approx. 30 rupees. They are the owners of the Onida brand of electronics. The half year eps of the company is 1.35 and at current price, the stock seems fairly valued to me.

Cheers!

pankaj said...

dear superstar
i m pankaj panjabi from gujrat
basicaly i m civil engineer but
i have left my construction business due to some family problem
now i want to statrt this business
of short term trading with initial investment of 10 to 15 lacs before
this i have invested some money
in this market, i have read yr
recomandation and i think u r
very famous boarder in moneycontrol
please guide me in this business
my email id :ppanjabi123@yahoo.co.in . please do needful
for me

vipul said...

Hi.. I had bought RPL @ 270 and 235.. Please update me, should i exit now or hold it.. !!
Thanks and regards

AKHIL said...

Hi Navin
Akhil from Canada. Need your suggestion when u can spare a second.
I have some stks on the following scrips..
BHARAT BIJLEE
AMAR RAJA
KIRLOSKAR OIL
CARBORUNDUM
IDBI
POWER GRID
PUNJ LYOD
RELIANCE COMM
RPL
GODAVARI
GMR
INDO TECH TRANSFORMER
PAPER PRODUCTS
GUFIC BIO

I have off-loaded Gufic at 19.90 as per your recommendation.(bought at 16.40)
I want to shorten my list to a few solid long term performers. Out of this list, could you please advise what to hold on to and accumulate. I will off-load the rest. Will really appreciate your feedback.
Merry Xmas and Happy Holidays.
Akhil
Toronto

AKHIL said...

Hi Navin
Akhil from Canada. Need your suggestion when u can spare a second.
I have some stks on the following scrips..
BHARAT BIJLEE
AMAR RAJA
KIRLOSKAR OIL
CARBORUNDUM
IDBI
POWER GRID
PUNJ LYOD
RELIANCE COMM
RPL
GODAVARI
GMR
INDO TECH TRANSFORMER
PAPER PRODUCTS
GUFIC BIO

I have off-loaded Gufic at 19.90 as per your recommendation.(bought at 16.40)
I want to shorten my list to a few solid long term performers. Out of this list, could you please advise what to hold on to and accumulate. I will off-load the rest. Will really appreciate your feedback.
Merry Xmas and Happy Holidays.
Akhil
Toronto

Sid said...

hi Superstar,
I am new to your forum and writing first time .
Can you please suggest me about TTML, I am having this share @58, should I hold it or exit, I want to make good profit in short time .
Thanx In advance sir .

Superstar said...

Friends,

I'll address individual stock queries at my earliest available free time. In the meanwhile, let me recommend a movie I'm just back from watching, Aamir's Taare Zameen Par. It is a film everyone MUST watch. Don't miss it.

Cheers!

cayotis said...

hii super star ,i am searching for ur blog from a long time,thax for ur recommendations.
i am having gmr infra ,so plz tell me when i should exit..

Superstar said...

Hi Akhil,

You haven't mentioned the prices at which you bought your various shares, but out of your long list, I would book profits in RPL, Punj Lloyd & GMR Infra.

Hi Cayotis,

I hope it answers your question on GMR Infra too. Although that stock is a darling of many analysts appearing on Tv, I find it a bit expensive at the current levels of approx. 250. I don't think its fundamentals justify its current price. I would gladly sell it and switch to something with more value. Maybe the tv analysts know something which I don't.

Hi Sid,

I would HOLD TTML at current price. There is a lot of buzz around the telecom stocks due to spectrum allocation and there is also some rumor around TTML merging with TTSL. Hold with a stop loss of 52.

And all of you can be ready for a NEW HOT Stock tip coming up real soon.

Cheers!

sudiprc said...

Superstar, any idea about Suryachakra Power?? I dont know if u recommended it before, thnx...

paddy said...

Hi Superstar.,
Your blogspot is real boon for retail investors like me. Pl. let me know your opinion on the following stocks. Are these good value buys?
- Pondy Oxides and chemicals
- Pennar Industries
- Albert David
- GEI industrial systems
- N R Agarwal Industries
I know you are bombarded with a lot of questions. Pl. take your own time and based on your recommendations I shall initiate a buy.
thanks
Venu

Superstar said...

Hi Paddy,

Pondy : Avoid
Pennar : Hold
Albert : Buy
Gei : No idea
NR aga : Buy

Cheers!

Superstar said...

Hi Sudiprc,
I had recommended Suryachakra Power at around 18-19 levels to some friends and clients. I won't buy now for the short term.

Cheers!

KKP Investor said...

Great recommendation.....Buying a great company like Auro before the massive wave comes in is a great idea. Thanks for the recommendation.

Is there a mailing list that I can be added to for getting your future blog or reco updates? If so, please add me (kkpatel1924@gmail.com). Based on your global visitors, I am adding Chicago to your list as an additional fan based on your current and past recommendations (checked them out).

I just discovered you today (12/29/2007) !

Thanks Navinbhai.

KKP_Investor

Raghu said...

Hi Navin,
Good day!
I have NISSAN COPPER bought @ 40. Now it's at 64.Given it's 52H price 154, would you please suggest whether to offload or hold this stock for short to medium term?
Cheers,
Raghu

Superstar said...

Hi KKP,

Welcome to the site. As of now, there is no such mailing list due to time constraints. You just need to keep checking this site on a regular basis for new tips. Going through the Queries under the main topics is also a good idea as sometimes even guests posts valuable tips here.

Hi Raghu,

Good day to you too. Nissan Copper is a Value stock even now and can scale up to 70 plus levels in the short term and 80-90 plus in the medium term (six months) as the Metals & Mining sector is likely to remain bullish for a while. So Hold.

Mittu said...

Hi,
Navin Bhai

Wish You Happy New Year

This is Mittu from Hyd

pankaj said...

dear superstar
wishing u a very happy new year 2008 and wish god fullfill yr all
goals in 2008
pankaj

deepak said...

< Dear superstar , PE and EPS of HTMT global (hinduja group)seems very attractive. Whether its woth buying........thanks deepak >

guru said...

hi superstar
I am a small investor who started my career in IT just few years back,knowing the sector a bit,I put my savings in the front runner Infosys,I hv 28@2070,for the past 1 year it is dwindling between 1540 and 2000 and with a strong rupee and credit fiasco in US I dont see it touching 2000 in next 1 year except mayb during quarter results,what do u advice on Infosys?should I wait some more time or sell it at a loss and re invest in some other stock.Plz also let me know about valuations for Satyam.
Ur doing a great job by guiding small time investors in the right direction selflessly.God bless u.

Amit said...

hi superstar,

you are doing a wondrful job in guiding small retail investors like me.
i have 600 TTML shares @ 49. do you think i should continue to hold it ?....or book profit and invest in aurobindo/cybermate?

DESTINY4U said...

hi superstar..

A fabulous job that u r upto , every retail investor must salute u for this. No matter any specific outcome , most of ur reccos have delivered.

I am gettig lot of recco on BLB Industries and Dhansuri Tea from Mumbai..ur opinions plzzzz..in case they r good , others too can benefit..regards..deepak

gbab said...

Dear Superstar
Your forecast on Aurobindo Pharma was convincing but it is simply rolling downhill from 550. Will it breach its 52-week low of 485 and unwind upto 400? What is the story of preferential shares hitting the market and increasing liquidity? Is this a passing phase or doom for the stock? Shall I book loss and exit or hold. In case of later pl. suggest stop loss

gbab said...

is CBOP a good buy at the current price? there's a lot of hoopla in the market about this one. please suggest.

Superstar said...

Hi gbab,

I would recommend a hold and buy on dips strategy on Aurobindo Pharma for the long term. My long term targets are intact even though the short term technicals for the stock are weak. Aurobindo is no different from the rest of the broader market which is falling like nine pins. I think next Mon-Tue would be crucial days for the entire market and specially the mid-small caps category.

I have already answered about CBOP in another thread of this blog. I do not like it at current levels. Switch to something with more fundamental value.

Cheers!

Superstar said...

Hi Deepak,
HTMT is a good company and the stock can be bought with an upside of 10-20% in the medium term.

Hi Guru,
Your entry price of 2000 plus for Infosys was rather high. While at the current price it is a hold, in your case you might as well switch to something else to recover your loss quicker.

Hi Amit,
All three stocks namely, TTML, Cybermate Info & Aurobindo are good picks at current levels. Choose any or all.

Hi Destiny4u,
I cannot find any stock named Dhansuri Tea on either of the exchanges. Check if it is a listed company. BLB Ltd can be bought closer to 50 maybe.

Cheers!

PS: Sorry for the delay in my response. I had completely missed your queries.

gbab said...

Dear Superstar
I appreciate the tenacity and dedication of yours in answering questions of anonymous boarders like me who are the first-timers in your blog. My concern for Aurobindo Pharma which I took up on your recommendation is far from being alayed but I really thank you for answering. Just sometimes boost the morale of us likes who seems to be adrift in a raderless ship called Aurobindo Pharm in a stormy shark infested sea of share market.
Thanks for everything

gbab said...

Dear Superstar
I thoroughly appreciate your tenacity and courteousness in replying first-timers like me. Though my concern over Aurobindo Pharma is far from being alayed yet I thank you again. Do give some morale boosters on our favourite Aurobindo Pharma

tapas said...

respected sir
i have been visiting your moneycontrol message wherin i picked up 400 aurobindo pharma solely on your recommendation at the rate of 530 average and from there it has nose dived, i could find one message in bseindia just see it below
Source: BSE - Aurobindo Pharma Ltd has informed BSE that in the limited review report of the Company for the quarter ended September 30, 2007, the Auditors of the Company have made the following observations: "Without qualifying their opinion, the Auditors draw attention to the non-provision of premium for the quarter amounting to Rs 230,827,941 and Rs 459,146,882 respectively payable on 255,500 Zero Coupon Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds of USD 1000 each issued by the Company. The cumulative amount of premium as at September 30, 2007 is Rs 1,396,524,915. Management is of the view that the liability to pay premium on redemption is contingent and the ultimate outcome of the matter cannot be presently determined. Accordingly, no provision for the above liability that may result in future, has been made in the accompanying statement of unaudited financial results". Date: 2007-11-29
how this is going to affect the share price in near future will it be able to sustain 400 -405 level
waiting for your reply
regards